Bradley effect

apparently helpedsurprise landslideThe Bradley Effect
The Bradley effect (less commonly the Wilder effect) is a theory concerning observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some United States government elections where a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other.wikipedia
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Tom Bradley (American politician)

Tom BradleyMayor Tom BradleyThomas Bradley
It was named after Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor's race despite being ahead in voter polls going into the elections. In 1982, Tom Bradley, the long-time mayor of Los Angeles, ran as the Democratic Party's candidate for Governor of California against Republican candidate George Deukmejian, who is white (of Armenian descent).
The racial dynamics that appeared to underlie his narrow and unexpected loss in 1982 gave rise to the political term "the Bradley effect."

1982 California gubernatorial election

19821982 California governor's raceCalifornia
It was named after Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor's race despite being ahead in voter polls going into the elections.
The incorrect polling numbers led to the theory — later dubbed "the Bradley effect" — that a statistically significant number of voters had given inaccurate responses when questioned by pollsters.

George Deukmejian

Governor DeukmejianCourken George Deukmejian Jr.
In 1982, Tom Bradley, the long-time mayor of Los Angeles, ran as the Democratic Party's candidate for Governor of California against Republican candidate George Deukmejian, who is white (of Armenian descent).
The discrepancy between the polling numbers and the election's ultimate results would come to be termed the "Bradley effect", which refers to a hypothesized tendency of white voters to tell interviewers or pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for a black candidate, but then actually vote for his opponent.

Social desirability bias

social desirabilityidealistic distortionssocial-desirability bias
The Bradley effect posits that the inaccurate polls were skewed by the phenomenon of social desirability bias.

Spiral of silence

The Spiral of Silencequasi-statistical senseSpiral of silence on the Internet
Similar effects have been posited in other contexts, for example, the Shy Tory Factor and spiral of silence.

Douglas Wilder

L. Douglas WilderDoug WilderGovernor L. Douglas Wilder
Similar voter behavior was noted in the 1989 race for Governor of Virginia between Democrat L. Douglas Wilder, an African-American, and Republican Marshall Coleman, who was white.
Some observers believed the close election was caused by the Bradley effect, and suggested that white voters were reluctant to tell pollsters that they did not intend to vote for Wilder.

David Palmer (24 character)

David PalmerPresident David PalmerDavid Palmer (''24'' character)
Others have called it the "Palmer effect" on the theory that David Palmer, a fictional president played by Dennis Haysbert during the second and third seasons of the television drama 24, showed viewers that an African American man can be a strong commander in chief.
Commentators have called this influence the "Palmer effect", in contrast to the Bradley effect.

Shy Tory factor

shy Tories
Similar effects have been posited in other contexts, for example, the Shy Tory Factor and spiral of silence.

White people

whitewhitesCaucasian
The Bradley effect (less commonly the Wilder effect) is a theory concerning observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some United States government elections where a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other.

Minority group

minorityminoritiesethnic minorities
The Bradley effect (less commonly the Wilder effect) is a theory concerning observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some United States government elections where a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other.

Mayor of Los Angeles

MayorLos Angeles MayorMayor of Los Angeles, California
It was named after Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor's race despite being ahead in voter polls going into the elections.

Political correctness

politically incorrectpolitically correctPC
Members of the public may feel under pressure to provide an answer that is deemed to be more publicly acceptable, or 'politically correct'.

Race (human categorization)

raceracialraces
The race of the pollster conducting the interview may factor into voters' answers.

Barack Obama

ObamaPresident ObamaPresident Barack Obama
Some analysts have dismissed the theory of the Bradley effect, or argued that it may have existed in past elections, but not in more recent ones, such as when Barack Obama was elected and re-elected President of the United States in 2008 and 2012 respectively.

Democratic Party (United States)

DemocraticDemocratDemocratic Party
In 1982, Tom Bradley, the long-time mayor of Los Angeles, ran as the Democratic Party's candidate for Governor of California against Republican candidate George Deukmejian, who is white (of Armenian descent).

Governor of California

GovernorCalifornia GovernorCalifornia
In 1982, Tom Bradley, the long-time mayor of Los Angeles, ran as the Democratic Party's candidate for Governor of California against Republican candidate George Deukmejian, who is white (of Armenian descent).

Republican Party (United States)

RepublicanRepublican PartyR
In 1982, Tom Bradley, the long-time mayor of Los Angeles, ran as the Democratic Party's candidate for Governor of California against Republican candidate George Deukmejian, who is white (of Armenian descent).

Armenian Americans

Armenian-AmericanArmenian AmericanArmenian
In 1982, Tom Bradley, the long-time mayor of Los Angeles, ran as the Democratic Party's candidate for Governor of California against Republican candidate George Deukmejian, who is white (of Armenian descent).

Exit poll

exit pollsexit pollingexit-polls
The reluctance to give accurate polling answers has sometimes extended to post-election exit polls as well. Based on exit polls, a number of media outlets projected Bradley as the winner and early editions of the next day's San Francisco Chronicle featured a headline proclaiming "Bradley Win Projected."

San Francisco Chronicle

The San Francisco ChronicleSFGateSF Gate
Based on exit polls, a number of media outlets projected Bradley as the winner and early editions of the next day's San Francisco Chronicle featured a headline proclaiming "Bradley Win Projected."

African-American studies

African American StudiesAfro-American StudiesAfrican American
Some news sources and columnists have attributed the theory's origin to Charles Henry, a professor of African-American Studies at the University of California, Berkeley.

University of California, Berkeley

UC BerkeleyUniversity of California at BerkeleyBerkeley
Some news sources and columnists have attributed the theory's origin to Charles Henry, a professor of African-American Studies at the University of California, Berkeley.

Mervin Field

Field PollField Research CorporationField
However, one critic of the Bradley effect theory has charged that Mervin Field of The Field Poll had already offered the theory as explanation for his poll's errors, suggesting it (without providing supporting data for the claim) on the day after the election.

Ken Khachigian

Ken Khachigian, a senior strategist and day-to-day tactician in Deukmejian's 1982 campaign, has noted that Field's final pre-election poll was badly timed, since it was taken over the weekend, and most late polls failed to register a surge in support for Deukmejian in the campaign's final two weeks.