John Bongaarts

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Dutch-American demographer.

- John Bongaarts

3 related topics



Capability to produce offspring through reproduction following the onset of sexual maturity.

Countries by fertility rate as of 2020
Chance of fertilization by menstrual cycle day relative to ovulation.
United States crude birth rate (births per 1000 population); Baby Boom years in red.

Bongaarts proposed a model where the total fertility rate of a population can be calculated from four proximate determinants and the total fecundity (TF).

Sex-selective abortion

Practice of terminating a pregnancy based upon the predicted sex of the infant.

World map of birth sex ratios, 2012
The human sex ratio at birth can vary for natural reasons as well as from sex-selective abortion. In many nations abortion is legal (see above map, dark blue).
Sign in an Indian hospital stating that prenatal sex determination is not done there and is illegal
Ultrasonography image showing the fetus is a boy
A roadside slogan calls motorists to crack down on medically unnecessary antenatal sex identification and sex-selective pregnancy termination practices. (Daye, Hubei, 2008)
Roadside sign in Danshan Township, which reads "It is forbidden to discriminate against, abuse or abandon baby girls"
Birth sex ratios have dramatically changed in China since the implementation of the One-Child Policy.
A map of India's child sex ratio, 2011.
The male to female sex ratio for India, based on its official census data from 1941 through to 2011. The data suggests the existence of high sex ratios before and after the arrival of ultrasound-based prenatal care and sex screening technologies in India.
Richard Bourke, 6th Earl of Mayo, who was Governor-General of India at the time of the Female Infanticide Prevention Act, 1870.
Pakistan has a tradition of sex selection. Similarly with India, the tradition of dowry plays role.
Topography of the Caucasus, a region at the border of Europe and Asia, situated between the Black and the Caspian seas
Burying Babies in China (p.40, March 1865, XXII). There is a long tradition of female infanticide in China.
Infanticide committed by throwing an infant into the Ganges river
A social awareness campaign in India against dowries
Wedding gifts for the son of the Imam of Delhi, India, with soldiers and 2000 guests. Large dowries are expected among several populations in South Asia, especially in India and Pakistan.
The one child policy in China has contributed to the imbalanced sex ratios. Image shows a community bulletin board in Nonguang Village, Sichuan province, China, keeping track of the town's female population, listing recent births by name and noting that several thousand yuan of fines for unauthorized births remain unpaid from the previous year.
Sign in an Indian clinic reading "Prenatal disclosure of sex of foetus is prohibited under law" in English and Hindi

A 2013 study by John Bongaarts based on surveys in 61 major countries calculates the sex ratios that would result if parents had the number of sons and daughters they want.

Sub-replacement fertility

Total fertility rate that (if sustained) leads to each new generation being less populous than the older, previous one in a given area.

Countries by crude birth rate (CBR) in 2014
Global fertility rates as of 2020
Americans with a bachelor's degree or higher by state according to the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey in 2019.
Child labor is common in many parts of the world
Human Development Index map. Darker is higher.
The Danshan, Sichuan Province Nongchang Village people Public Affairs Bulletin Board in September 2005 noted that RMB 25,000 in social compensation fees were owed in 2005, for violation of the one child policy. Thus far 11,500 RMB had been collected, so another 13,500 RMB had to be collected.
Japan, a highly developed country, has low fertility rates and a rapidly aging population
Infant mortality rates, under age 1, in 2013. Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest infant mortality rate, as well as the highest TFR.

John Bongaarts and Griffith Feeney have suggested that this tempo effect is driving the decline of measured fertility rate in the developed world.