Swing state and Related Topics

Electoral votes, out of 538, allocated to each state and the District of Columbia for presidential elections to be held in 2024 and 2028, based on representation, which depends on population data from the 2020 census. Every jurisdiction is entitled to at least 3.

United States Electoral College

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Group of presidential electors required by the Constitution to form every four years for the sole purpose of appointing the president and vice president.

In the 2020 presidential election (held using 2010 census data) Joe Biden received 306 and Donald Trump 232 of the total 538 electoral votes.
In Maine (upper-right) and Nebraska (center), the small circled numbers indicate congressional districts. These are the only two states to use a district method for some of their allocated electors, instead of a complete winner-takes-all.

Cases of certificates of the electoral college votes confirming the results of the 2020 US election, after they had been removed from the House Chambers by congressional staff during the 2021 U.S. Capitol attack.

After the popular election in November, a state's Certificate of Ascertainment officially announces the state's electors for the Electoral College. The appointed Electoral College members later meet in the state capital in December to cast their votes.

Population per electoral vote for each state and Washington, D.C. (2010 census). By 2020 estimates, a single elector could represent more than 700,000 people or under 200,000.

When the state's electors meet in December, they cast their ballots and record their vote on a Certificate of Vote, which is then sent to the U.S. Congress. (From the election of 1876)

This cartogram shows the number of electors from each state for the 2012, 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. Following the 2010 Census, New York and Ohio lost two electoral votes, 8 states lost one, 6 states gained one, Florida gained two, and Texas gained four.

This graphic demonstrates how the winner of the popular vote can still lose in an electoral college system similar to the U.S. Electoral College.

Bar graph of popular votes in presidential elections (through 2020). Black stars mark the five cases where the winner did not have the plurality of the popular vote. Black squares mark the two cases where the electoral vote resulted in a tie, or the winner did not have the majority of electoral votes. An H marks each of two cases where the election was decided by the House; an S marks the one case where the election was finalized by the Supreme Court.

These maps show the amount of attention given to each state by the Bush and Kerry campaigns (combined) during the final five weeks of the 2004 election: each waving hand (purple map) represents a visit from a presidential or vice presidential candidate; each dollar sign (green map) represents one million dollars spent on TV advertising.

Half the U.S. population lives in 143 urban / suburban counties out of 3,143 counties or county equivalents (2019 American Community Survey)

Further objection is that instead of spending equally on each voter in the nation, candidates focus their campaigns on just a few swing states.

A 2016 general election ballot, listing the presidential and vice presidential candidates

United States presidential election

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Indirect election in which citizens of the United States who are registered to vote in one of the fifty U.S. states or in Washington, D.C., cast ballots not directly for those offices, but instead for members of the Electoral College.

Comparison of the popular vote totals since 1900.

The hand-written copy of the natural-born-citizen clause as it appeared in 1787

A 2008 Democratic caucus meeting in Iowa City, Iowa. The Iowa caucuses are traditionally the first major electoral event of presidential primaries and caucuses.

Madison Square Garden in New York City, the site of the 1976, 1980, and 1992 Democratic National Conventions; and the 2004 Republican National Convention.

The floor of the 2008 Republican National Convention at the Xcel Energy Center in Saint Paul, Minnesota.

A Texas voter about to mark a selection for president on a ballot, 2008 Election Day

John Adams was the first of 26 presidents who have been lawyers.

As almost all states mandate the winner of the plurality of its constituent statewide popular vote ('one person, one vote') shall receive all of that state's electors ("winner-takes-all'), instances such as the presidential elections of 1876, 1888, 2000, and 2016 produced an Electoral College winner who did not receive the most votes in the general election; these were presidential elections in which the winner lost the popular vote due to the outsized effects of close and narrow pluralities in numerous swing states.

2008 United States presidential election

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The 56th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 4, 2008.

The incumbent in 2008, George W. Bush. His second term expired at noon on January 20, 2009.

2008 DNC during Stevie Wonder's performance

The Palins and McCains campaigning in Fairfax, Virginia, September 10, 2008, following the Republican National Convention

Obama campaigning as a symbol of change in Cleveland, Ohio with a "Change We Need" sign

Cartogram of the Electoral Votes for 2008 United States presidential election, each square representing one electoral vote. The map shows the impact of winning swing states. Nebraska, being one of two states that are not winner-take-all, for the first time had its votes split, with its second congressional district voting for Obama.

An Obama sign displayed at a home in Arlington, VA, on November 1, 2008.

States/districts in the 2008 United States Presidential election in which the margin of victory was less than 5%. Blue states/districts went for Obama, red for McCain. Yellow states were won by either candidate by 5% or more. Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia and Iowa were won by Bush in 2004 but were won by Obama by a margin of more than 5% in 2008.

Swing by state. States are listed by (increasing) percentage of Democratic votes, showing how the share of the vote changed between 2004 and 2008. Excluding the candidates' home states, only five states trended more Republican: Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Tennessee and West Virginia.

Popular vote by county. Red represents counties that went for McCain; blue represents counties that went for Obama. Connecticut, Hawaii, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont had all counties go to Obama. Oklahoma had all counties go to McCain.

Presidential popular votes by county as a scale from red/Republican to blue/Democratic.

Cartogram of popular vote with each county rescaled in proportion to its population. Deeper blue represents a Democratic majority; brighter red represents a Republican majority.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/2008/|title=Election maps|website=www-personal.umich.edu}}</ref>

Voting shifts per county from the 2004 to the 2008 election. Darker blue indicates the county voted more Democratic. Darker red indicates the county voted more Republican.

Results by county, shaded according to winning candidate's percentage of the vote.

Change in vote margins at the county level from the 2004 election to the 2008 election. Obama made dramatic gains in every region of the country except for Arizona (McCain's home state), Alaska (Palin's home state), Appalachia, and the inner South, where McCain improved over Bush.

Results by Congressional Districts, shaded according to winning candidate's percentage of the vote.

Final poll closing times on Election Day.
7PM EST [00:00 UTC] (6)
7:30PM EST [00:30 UTC] (3)
8PM EST [01:00 UTC] (15+DC)
8:30PM EST [01:30 UTC] (1)
9PM EST [02:00 UTC] (15)
10PM EST [03:00 UTC] (4)
11PM EST [04:00 UTC] (5)
1AM EST [06:00 UTC] (1)

Allegations of voter list purges using unlawful criteria caused controversy in at least six swing states: Colorado, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Nevada and North Carolina.

2016 United States presidential election

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The 58th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016.

The incumbent in 2016, Barack Obama. His second term expired at noon on January 20, 2017.

Campaign signs of third-party candidates Jill Stein and Gary Johnson, October 2016 in St. Johnsbury, Vermont

A general election ballot, listing the presidential and vice presidential candidates

Trump campaigns in Phoenix, Arizona, October 29, 2016

Clinton campaigns in Raleigh, North Carolina, October 22, 2016

President Barack Obama casting his vote early in Chicago on October 7, 2016

Vote margin swing by state 2012 to 2016. Only twelve states (as well as the District of Columbia and Nebraka's 2nd congressional district) shifted more Democratic. The large swing in Utah is mostly due to the votes for third candidate Evan McMullin and the 2012 candidacy of Utah's Mitt Romney.

Final polling averages for the 2016 election by state. Polls from lightly shaded states are older than September 1, 2016.

Results by state, shaded according to winning candidate's percentage of the vote

Results by vote distribution among states. The size of each state's pie chart is proportional to its number of electoral votes.

Results by county. Red denotes counties that went to Trump; blue denotes counties that went to Clinton.

A discontinuous cartogram of the 2016 United States presidential election

A continuous cartogram of the 2016 United States presidential election

A discretized cartogram of the 2016 United States presidential election using squares

A discretized cartogram of the 2016 United States presidential election using hexagons

Results of election by congressional district, shaded by winning candidate's percentage of the vote

Results by county, shaded according to percentage of the vote for Johnson

Results by county, shaded according to percentage of the vote for Jill Stein

Results by state, shaded according to margin of victory

Trump performed surprisingly well in all battleground states, especially Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina.

Democratic Party (United States)

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One of the two major contemporary political parties in the United States.

Andrew Jackson was the seventh president of the United States (1829–1837) and the first Democratic president.

Martin Van Buren was the eighth president of the United States (1837–1841) and the second Democratic president.

The 1885 inauguration of Grover Cleveland, the only president with non-consecutive terms

Leaders of the Democratic Party during the first half of the 20th century on 14 June 1913: Secretary of State William J. Bryan, Josephus Daniels, President Woodrow Wilson, Breckinridge Long, William Phillips, and Franklin D. Roosevelt

Franklin D. Roosevelt and Harry S. Truman, 32nd and 33rd presidents of the United States (1933–1945; 1945–1953), featured on a campaign poster for the 1944 presidential election

John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson, 35th and 36th presidents of the United States (1961–1963, 1963–1969)

Jimmy Carter, 39th president of the United States (1977–1981), delivering the State of the Union Address in 1979

Bill Clinton, 42nd president of the United States (1993–2001), at The Pentagon in 1998

Barack Obama speaking to College Democrats of America in 2007

President Barack Obama meeting with the Blue Dog Coalition in the State Dining Room of the White House in 2009

Eleanor Roosevelt at the 1956 Democratic National Convention in Chicago

President Barack Obama signing the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act into law at the White House on March 23, 2010

Secretary of State John Kerry addressing delegates at the United Nations before signing the Paris Agreement on April 22, 2016

Shirley Chisholm was the first major-party African American candidate to run nationwide primary campaigns.

President Lyndon B. Johnson signing the Immigration Act of 1965 as Vice President Hubert Humphrey, Senators Edward M. Kennedy and Robert F. Kennedy and others look on

Then-Senator Barack Obama shaking hands with an American soldier in Basra, Iraq in 2008

President Jimmy Carter and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin in 1978

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meeting with President Barack Obama at Ben Gurion Airport in 2013

Self-identified Democrats (blue) versus self-identified Republicans (red) (January–June 2010 data)

Higher percentages of Democrats than Republicans are members of union households.

Elected at age 33, Jon Ossoff is currently the youngest member of the U.S. Senate.

Hillary Clinton was the first woman to be nominated for president by a major party.

Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg

Julián Castro served as Secretary of Housing and Urban Development.

U.S. opinion on gun control issues is deeply divided along political lines, as shown in this 2021 survey.

Jewish Americans as an important Democratic constituency are especially politically active and influential in large cities such as New York City, Los Angeles, Boston, and Chicago and play critical roles in large cities within presidential swing states, such as Philadelphia, Miami, and Las Vegas.

Southern United States

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Geographic and cultural region of the United States of America.

Field of yellow wildflowers in Saint Bernard Parish, Louisiana

Misty Bluff along the Buffalo River, Ozark Mountains, Arkansas

Tidal wetlands of the Chesapeake Bay in Maryland

The highlands of Grayson County in Southwest Virginia

1st Maryland Regiment holding the line at the Battle of Guilford Courthouse in North Carolina, 1781

The siege of Yorktown prompted Great Britain's surrender in North America during the American Revolutionary War, 1781

Slaves on a South Carolina plantation (The Old Plantation, circa 1790)

Grove Plantation in Tallahassee, Florida. Known officially as the Call/Collins House at the Grove. Built circa 1840.

Horse race meeting at Jacksonville, Alabama, 1841

Historic Southern United States. The states in light red were considered "border states", and gave varying degrees of support to the Southern cause although they remained in the Union. This illustration depicts the original, trans-Allegheny borders of Virginia, and thus does not show West Virginia (which separated from Virginia in 1863) separately. Although members of the Five Tribes in Indian Territory (today part of Oklahoma) aligned themselves with the Confederacy, the region is not shaded because at the time it was a territory, not a state.

Atlanta's railroad roundhouse in ruins shortly after the end of the Civil War

An African American family, photo-graphed by O'Pierre Havens, circa 1868

A Home on the Mississippi, by Currier and Ives, 1871

Child laborers in Bluffton, South Carolina, 1913

An illustration from Houston: Where Seventeen Railroads Meet the Sea, 1913

Photo of sharecropper family in Walker County, Alabama, circa 1937

Street musicians in Maynardville, Tennessee, photographed in 1935

Alabama plays Texas in American football for the 2010 BCS National Championship Game

Houston vs Texas face-off during the 2013 Lone Star Series in the American League West division of Major League Baseball

The start of the 2015 Daytona 500, the biggest race in NASCAR, at Daytona International Speedway in Daytona Beach, Florida

A rally against school integration in Little Rock, 1959.

U.S. president Lyndon B. Johnson signs the historic Civil Rights Act of 1964.

Bill Clinton, newly elected Governor of Arkansas speaking with Jimmy Carter in 1978. Carter and Clinton were both Southern Democrats and elected to the presidencies in 1976 and 1992.

Racial segregation was required by state laws in the South and other U.S. states until 1964.

The South usually elects Republicans in most states, but both the Republican and Democratic Party are competitive in certain Southern swing states.

2020 United States presidential election

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The 59th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020.

States and territories with at least one local, state, or federal primary election date or method of voting altered as of August 5, 2020.

A poll worker sanitizes an election booth in Davis, California

Chart of July 2020 opinion survey on likelihood of voting by mail in November election, compared to 2016

President Donald Trump with Amy Coney Barrett and her family, just prior to Barrett being announced as the nominee, September 26, 2020

George Floyd protests in Minneapolis on May 26

Hexagonal cartogram of the number of electoral college votes. States with opposite outcomes from 2016 are hatched.

People celebrate in the streets near the White House after the major networks projected Biden the winner of the election on November 7.

Senator Chuck Schumer addresses a crowd celebrating in Times Square, New York City shortly after the election was called for Biden.

Voters cast ballots at Roosevelt High School in Des Moines, Iowa

Screenshot of a tweet from Trump's Twitter account where he repeatedly and falsely claimed he had won.

CNN fact checker Daniel Dale reported that through June 9, 2021, Trump had issued 132 written statements since leaving office, of which "a third have included lies about the election"—more than any other subject.

Pro-Trump rioters stormed the U.S. Capitol Building on January 6

A discontinuous cartogram of the 2020 United States presidential election

A continuous county-level cartogram of the 2020 United States presidential election

Election results by Congressional District

Shaded election results by county (red-purple-blue scale)

As a result of a large number of mail-in ballots, some swing states saw delays in vote counting and reporting; this led to major news outlets delaying their projection of Biden and Harris as the president-elect and vice president-elect until the morning of November 7, three and a half days after the election.