A report on Swing state

State races by 2020 United States presidential election margin.

In American politics, the term swing state (or battleground state) refers to any state that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican candidate in a statewide election, most often referring to presidential elections, by a swing in votes.

- Swing state
State races by 2020 United States presidential election margin.

36 related topics with Alpha

Overall

Electoral votes, out of 538, allocated to each state and the District of Columbia for presidential elections to be held in 2024 and 2028, based on representation, which depends on population data from the 2020 census. Every jurisdiction is entitled to at least 3.

United States Electoral College

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Group of presidential electors required by the Constitution to form every four years for the sole purpose of appointing the president and vice president.

Group of presidential electors required by the Constitution to form every four years for the sole purpose of appointing the president and vice president.

Electoral votes, out of 538, allocated to each state and the District of Columbia for presidential elections to be held in 2024 and 2028, based on representation, which depends on population data from the 2020 census. Every jurisdiction is entitled to at least 3.
In the 2020 presidential election (held using 2010 census data) Joe Biden received 306 and Donald Trump 232 of the total 538 electoral votes.
In Maine (upper-right) and Nebraska (center), the small circled numbers indicate congressional districts. These are the only two states to use a district method for some of their allocated electors, instead of a complete winner-takes-all.
Cases of certificates of the electoral college votes confirming the results of the 2020 US election, after they had been removed from the House Chambers by congressional staff during the 2021 U.S. Capitol attack.
After the popular election in November, a state's Certificate of Ascertainment officially announces the state's electors for the Electoral College. The appointed Electoral College members later meet in the state capital in December to cast their votes.
Population per electoral vote for each state and Washington, D.C. (2010 census). By 2020 estimates, a single elector could represent more than 700,000 people or under 200,000.
When the state's electors meet in December, they cast their ballots and record their vote on a Certificate of Vote, which is then sent to the U.S. Congress. (From the election of 1876)
This cartogram shows the number of electors from each state for the 2012, 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. Following the 2010 Census, New York and Ohio lost two electoral votes, 8 states lost one, 6 states gained one, Florida gained two, and Texas gained four.
This graphic demonstrates how the winner of the popular vote can still lose in an electoral college system similar to the U.S. Electoral College.
Bar graph of popular votes in presidential elections (through 2020). Black stars mark the five cases where the winner did not have the plurality of the popular vote. Black squares mark the two cases where the electoral vote resulted in a tie, or the winner did not have the majority of electoral votes. An H marks each of two cases where the election was decided by the House; an S marks the one case where the election was finalized by the Supreme Court.
These maps show the amount of attention given to each state by the Bush and Kerry campaigns (combined) during the final five weeks of the 2004 election: each waving hand (purple map) represents a visit from a presidential or vice presidential candidate; each dollar sign (green map) represents one million dollars spent on TV advertising.
Half the U.S. population lives in 143 urban / suburban counties out of 3,143 counties or county equivalents (2019 American Community Survey)

Further objection is that instead of spending equally on each voter in the nation, candidates focus their campaigns on just a few swing states.

A 2016 general election ballot, listing the presidential and vice presidential candidates

United States presidential election

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Indirect election in which citizens of the United States who are registered to vote in one of the fifty U.S. states or in Washington, D.C., cast ballots not directly for those offices, but instead for members of the Electoral College.

Indirect election in which citizens of the United States who are registered to vote in one of the fifty U.S. states or in Washington, D.C., cast ballots not directly for those offices, but instead for members of the Electoral College.

A 2016 general election ballot, listing the presidential and vice presidential candidates
Comparison of the popular vote totals since 1900.
The hand-written copy of the natural-born-citizen clause as it appeared in 1787
A 2008 Democratic caucus meeting in Iowa City, Iowa. The Iowa caucuses are traditionally the first major electoral event of presidential primaries and caucuses.
Madison Square Garden in New York City, the site of the 1976, 1980, and 1992 Democratic National Conventions; and the 2004 Republican National Convention.
The floor of the 2008 Republican National Convention at the Xcel Energy Center in Saint Paul, Minnesota.
A Texas voter about to mark a selection for president on a ballot, 2008 Election Day
2020 Election
John Adams was the first of 26 presidents who have been lawyers.
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As almost all states mandate the winner of the plurality of its constituent statewide popular vote ('one person, one vote') shall receive all of that state's electors ("winner-takes-all'), instances such as the presidential elections of 1876, 1888, 2000, and 2016 produced an Electoral College winner who did not receive the most votes in the general election; these were presidential elections in which the winner lost the popular vote due to the outsized effects of close and narrow pluralities in numerous swing states.

2008 United States presidential election

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The 56th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 4, 2008.

The 56th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 4, 2008.

The incumbent in 2008, George W. Bush. His second term expired at noon on January 20, 2009.
2008 DNC during Stevie Wonder's performance
The Palins and McCains campaigning in Fairfax, Virginia, September 10, 2008, following the Republican National Convention
Obama campaigning as a symbol of change in Cleveland, Ohio with a "Change We Need" sign
Cartogram of the Electoral Votes for 2008 United States presidential election, each square representing one electoral vote. The map shows the impact of winning swing states. Nebraska, being one of two states that are not winner-take-all, for the first time had its votes split, with its second congressional district voting for Obama.
An Obama sign displayed at a home in Arlington, VA, on November 1, 2008.
States/districts in the 2008 United States Presidential election in which the margin of victory was less than 5%. Blue states/districts went for Obama, red for McCain. Yellow states were won by either candidate by 5% or more. Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia and Iowa were won by Bush in 2004 but were won by Obama by a margin of more than 5% in 2008.
Swing by state. States are listed by (increasing) percentage of Democratic votes, showing how the share of the vote changed between 2004 and 2008. Excluding the candidates' home states, only five states trended more Republican: Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Tennessee and West Virginia.
{{center|Independent:
{{center|Libertarian Party:
{{center|Constitution Party:
{{center|Green Party:
Popular vote by county. Red represents counties that went for McCain; blue represents counties that went for Obama. Connecticut, Hawaii, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont had all counties go to Obama. Oklahoma had all counties go to McCain.
Presidential popular votes by county as a scale from red/Republican to blue/Democratic.
Cartogram of popular vote with each county rescaled in proportion to its population. Deeper blue represents a Democratic majority; brighter red represents a Republican majority.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/2008/|title=Election maps|website=www-personal.umich.edu}}</ref>
Voting shifts per county from the 2004 to the 2008 election. Darker blue indicates the county voted more Democratic. Darker red indicates the county voted more Republican.
Results by county, shaded according to winning candidate's percentage of the vote.
Change in vote margins at the county level from the 2004 election to the 2008 election. Obama made dramatic gains in every region of the country except for Arizona (McCain's home state), Alaska (Palin's home state), Appalachia, and the inner South, where McCain improved over Bush.
Results by Congressional Districts, shaded according to winning candidate's percentage of the vote.
Final poll closing times on Election Day.
7PM EST [00:00 UTC] (6)
7:30PM EST [00:30 UTC] (3)
8PM EST [01:00 UTC] (15+DC)
8:30PM EST [01:30 UTC] (1)
9PM EST [02:00 UTC] (15)
10PM EST [03:00 UTC] (4)
11PM EST [04:00 UTC] (5)
1AM EST [06:00 UTC] (1)

Allegations of voter list purges using unlawful criteria caused controversy in at least six swing states: Colorado, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Nevada and North Carolina.

2016 United States presidential election

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The 58th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016.

The 58th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016.

The incumbent in 2016, Barack Obama. His second term expired at noon on January 20, 2017.
Campaign signs of third-party candidates Jill Stein and Gary Johnson, October 2016 in St. Johnsbury, Vermont
map
map
map
A general election ballot, listing the presidential and vice presidential candidates
Trump campaigns in Phoenix, Arizona, October 29, 2016
Clinton campaigns in Raleigh, North Carolina, October 22, 2016
President Barack Obama casting his vote early in Chicago on October 7, 2016
Vote margin swing by state 2012 to 2016. Only twelve states (as well as the District of Columbia and Nebraka's 2nd congressional district) shifted more Democratic. The large swing in Utah is mostly due to the votes for third candidate Evan McMullin and the 2012 candidacy of Utah's Mitt Romney.
Final polling averages for the 2016 election by state. Polls from lightly shaded states are older than September 1, 2016.
Results by state, shaded according to winning candidate's percentage of the vote
Results by vote distribution among states. The size of each state's pie chart is proportional to its number of electoral votes.
Results by county. Red denotes counties that went to Trump; blue denotes counties that went to Clinton.
Results by county, shaded according to winning candidate's percentage of the vote
A discontinuous cartogram of the 2016 United States presidential election
A continuous cartogram of the 2016 United States presidential election
A discretized cartogram of the 2016 United States presidential election using squares
A discretized cartogram of the 2016 United States presidential election using hexagons
Results of election by congressional district, shaded by winning candidate's percentage of the vote
County swing from 2012 to 2016
Results by county, shaded according to percentage of the vote for Johnson
Results by county, shaded according to percentage of the vote for Jill Stein
Results by state, shaded according to margin of victory

Trump performed surprisingly well in all battleground states, especially Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina.

Democratic Party (United States)

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One of the two major contemporary political parties in the United States.

One of the two major contemporary political parties in the United States.

Andrew Jackson was the seventh president of the United States (1829–1837) and the first Democratic president.
Martin Van Buren was the eighth president of the United States (1837–1841) and the second Democratic president.
Senator Stephen A. Douglas
The 1885 inauguration of Grover Cleveland, the only president with non-consecutive terms
Leaders of the Democratic Party during the first half of the 20th century on 14 June 1913: Secretary of State William J. Bryan, Josephus Daniels, President Woodrow Wilson, Breckinridge Long, William Phillips, and Franklin D. Roosevelt
Franklin D. Roosevelt and Harry S. Truman, 32nd and 33rd presidents of the United States (1933–1945; 1945–1953), featured on a campaign poster for the 1944 presidential election
John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson, 35th and 36th presidents of the United States (1961–1963, 1963–1969)
Jimmy Carter, 39th president of the United States (1977–1981), delivering the State of the Union Address in 1979
Bill Clinton, 42nd president of the United States (1993–2001), at The Pentagon in 1998
Barack Obama speaking to College Democrats of America in 2007
President Barack Obama meeting with the Blue Dog Coalition in the State Dining Room of the White House in 2009
Eleanor Roosevelt at the 1956 Democratic National Convention in Chicago
President Barack Obama signing the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act into law at the White House on March 23, 2010
Secretary of State John Kerry addressing delegates at the United Nations before signing the Paris Agreement on April 22, 2016
Shirley Chisholm was the first major-party African American candidate to run nationwide primary campaigns.
President Lyndon B. Johnson signing the Immigration Act of 1965 as Vice President Hubert Humphrey, Senators Edward M. Kennedy and Robert F. Kennedy and others look on
Then-Senator Barack Obama shaking hands with an American soldier in Basra, Iraq in 2008
President Jimmy Carter and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin in 1978
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meeting with President Barack Obama at Ben Gurion Airport in 2013
Self-identified Democrats (blue) versus self-identified Republicans (red) (January–June 2010 data)
Higher percentages of Democrats than Republicans are members of union households.
Elected at age 33, Jon Ossoff is currently the youngest member of the U.S. Senate.
Hillary Clinton was the first woman to be nominated for president by a major party.
Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg
Vice President Kamala Harris
Julián Castro served as Secretary of Housing and Urban Development.
U.S. Senator Tammy Duckworth
Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi
U.S. Senator Kyrsten Sinema
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer
U.S. opinion on gun control issues is deeply divided along political lines, as shown in this 2021 survey.

Jewish Americans as an important Democratic constituency are especially politically active and influential in large cities such as New York City, Los Angeles, Boston, and Chicago and play critical roles in large cities within presidential swing states, such as Philadelphia, Miami, and Las Vegas.

Southern United States

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Geographic and cultural region of the United States of America.

Geographic and cultural region of the United States of America.

Texas Hill Country
Bluegrass region, Kentucky
Glass Mountains, Oklahoma
North Carolina's Appalachian Mountains
Field of yellow wildflowers in Saint Bernard Parish, Louisiana
Pearl River backwater in Mississippi
Misty Bluff along the Buffalo River, Ozark Mountains, Arkansas
Tidal wetlands of the Chesapeake Bay in Maryland
Cherry River in West Virginia
The highlands of Grayson County in Southwest Virginia
1st Maryland Regiment holding the line at the Battle of Guilford Courthouse in North Carolina, 1781
The siege of Yorktown prompted Great Britain's surrender in North America during the American Revolutionary War, 1781
Slaves on a South Carolina plantation (The Old Plantation, circa 1790)
Grove Plantation in Tallahassee, Florida. Known officially as the Call/Collins House at the Grove. Built circa 1840.
Horse race meeting at Jacksonville, Alabama, 1841
Historic Southern United States. The states in light red were considered "border states", and gave varying degrees of support to the Southern cause although they remained in the Union. This illustration depicts the original, trans-Allegheny borders of Virginia, and thus does not show West Virginia (which separated from Virginia in 1863) separately. Although members of the Five Tribes in Indian Territory (today part of Oklahoma) aligned themselves with the Confederacy, the region is not shaded because at the time it was a territory, not a state.
Atlanta's railroad roundhouse in ruins shortly after the end of the Civil War
An African American family, photo-graphed by O'Pierre Havens, circa 1868
A Home on the Mississippi, by Currier and Ives, 1871
Child laborers in Bluffton, South Carolina, 1913
An illustration from Houston: Where Seventeen Railroads Meet the Sea, 1913
Photo of sharecropper family in Walker County, Alabama, circa 1937
Naval Air Station Miami, circa 1942–43
Street musicians in Maynardville, Tennessee, photographed in 1935
Alabama plays Texas in American football for the 2010 BCS National Championship Game
Houston vs Texas face-off during the 2013 Lone Star Series in the American League West division of Major League Baseball
The start of the 2015 Daytona 500, the biggest race in NASCAR, at Daytona International Speedway in Daytona Beach, Florida
A rally against school integration in Little Rock, 1959.
U.S. president Lyndon B. Johnson signs the historic Civil Rights Act of 1964.
Bill Clinton, newly elected Governor of Arkansas speaking with Jimmy Carter in 1978. Carter and Clinton were both Southern Democrats and elected to the presidencies in 1976 and 1992.
Racial segregation was required by state laws in the South and other U.S. states until 1964.
Dallas
Houston
Washington, D.C.
Miami
Atlanta
Tampa
Charlotte
Nashville
Louisville
New Orleans
University of Texas at Austin
Virginia Tech
University of Miami
Rice University

The South usually elects Republicans in most states, but both the Republican and Democratic Party are competitive in certain Southern swing states.

2020 United States presidential election

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The 59th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020.

The 59th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020.

States and territories with at least one local, state, or federal primary election date or method of voting altered as of August 5, 2020.
A poll worker sanitizes an election booth in Davis, California
Chart of July 2020 opinion survey on likelihood of voting by mail in November election, compared to 2016
President Donald Trump with Amy Coney Barrett and her family, just prior to Barrett being announced as the nominee, September 26, 2020
George Floyd protests in Minneapolis on May 26
Early voting in Cleveland, Ohio
Hexagonal cartogram of the number of electoral college votes. States with opposite outcomes from 2016 are hatched.
People celebrate in the streets near the White House after the major networks projected Biden the winner of the election on November 7.
Senator Chuck Schumer addresses a crowd celebrating in Times Square, New York City shortly after the election was called for Biden.
Voters cast ballots at Roosevelt High School in Des Moines, Iowa
Screenshot of a tweet from Trump's Twitter account where he repeatedly and falsely claimed he had won.
CNN fact checker Daniel Dale reported that through June 9, 2021, Trump had issued 132 written statements since leaving office, of which "a third have included lies about the election"—more than any other subject.
Pro-Trump rioters stormed the U.S. Capitol Building on January 6
Results by state, shaded according to winning candidate's percentage of the vote
Results by county
Results by county, shaded according to winning candidate's percentage of the vote
A discontinuous cartogram of the 2020 United States presidential election
A continuous county-level cartogram of the 2020 United States presidential election
County swing from 2016 to 2020
Election results by Congressional District
Shaded election results by county (red-purple-blue scale)
States shaded by margin of victory
Counties shaded by margin of victory

As a result of a large number of mail-in ballots, some swing states saw delays in vote counting and reporting; this led to major news outlets delaying their projection of Biden and Harris as the president-elect and vice president-elect until the morning of November 7, three and a half days after the election.

Illinois

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State in the Midwestern United States.

State in the Midwestern United States.

Mississippian copper plate found at the Saddle Site in Union County, Illinois
Illinois in 1718, approximate modern state area highlighted, from Carte de la Louisiane et du cours du Mississipi by Guillaume de L'Isle
The bell donated by King Louis XV in 1741 to the mission at Kaskaskia. It was later called the "Liberty Bell of the West", after it was rung to celebrate U.S. victory in the Revolution
In 1818, Illinois became the 21st U.S. state. The southern portion of Illinois Territory was admitted as the state of Illinois, and the rest was joined to Michigan Territory.
[[Old State Capitol State Historic Site|
Old State Capitol]]: Abraham Lincoln and other area legislators were instrumental in moving the state capitol to centrally located Springfield in 1839.
Embarkation of Union troops from Cairo on January 10, 1862
Charles Mound, the highest natural point in Illinois at 1,235 feet above sea level, is located in the Driftless Area in the northwestern part of the state.
At 279 feet above sea level, the lowest elevation point in the state is located near Cairo and the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers.
Köppen climate types of Illinois
Density map displaying the population of Illinois
The Baháʼí House of Worship in Wilmette, Illinois
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago at the heart of Chicago's financial center
Byron Nuclear Generating Station in Ogle County
Average annual wind power distribution for Illinois, 50 m height above ground (2009)
Soldier Field, Chicago
The Illinois State Capitol in Springfield
Illinois House of Representatives
Governor J. B. Pritzker (D)
University of Illinois
University of Chicago
University of Illinois Willard Airport
Inside O'Hare International Airport
Vandalia State House State Historic Site in Vandalia
The Museum of Science and Industry in Chicago
Magnolia Manor is a Victorian period historic house museum in Cairo.
Lincoln Home National Historic Site in Springfield
The Polish Museum of America in Chicago
A Railway Post Office preserved at the Illinois Railway Museum in Union
Standard license plate introduced in 2017
Standard license plate 2001 to 2016
Illinois license plate design used throughout the 1980s and 1990s, displaying the Land of Lincoln slogan that has been featured on the state's plates since 1954
Illinois 2020 Population Density Map

Described as a microcosm of the entire United States, Illinois has long been considered a bellwether in social, cultural, and political terms.

Ohio

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State in the Midwestern region of the United States.

State in the Midwestern region of the United States.

Artists conception of the Fort Ancient SunWatch Indian Village in Dayton.
Iroquois conquests during the Beaver Wars (mid-1600s), which largely depopulated the upper and mid-Ohio River valley.
The Ohio Country indicating battle sites between American settlers and indigenous tribes, 1775–1794.
Rufus Putnam by James Sharples, Jr., 1797
Battle of Lake Erie by William Henry Powell.
The route of Morgan's Raid.
The first Standard Oil refinery was opened in Cleveland by businessman John D. Rockefeller.
Iron being converted to steel for wartime efforts at Youngstown's Republic Steel in 1941.
Geographic regions of Ohio.
Map of Ohio cities and rivers.
Köppen climate types of Ohio, using 1991-2020 climate normals.
Ohio population density map.
Amish children on their way to school
Cincinnati's Procter & Gamble is one of Ohio's largest companies in terms of revenue.
Cincinnati light rail
The Ohio Statehouse in Columbus, home to the Ohio General Assembly.
The Thomas J. Moyer Ohio Judicial Center holds the Supreme Court of Ohio.
Presidential election results by county for 2020
University Hall at the Ohio State University in Columbus.
Bosworth Hall at Oberlin College in northeast Ohio.
Springer Auditorium at the Cincinnati Music Hall.
Progressive Field, home to the Cleveland Guardians baseball team
Ohio Stadium in Columbus, home to the Ohio State Buckeyes football team, is the fifth largest stadium in the world.
Population growth by county in Ohio between the 2010 and 2020 censuses. -10 to -5 percent
-5 to -2 percent
-2 to 0 percent
0 to 2 percent
2 to 5 percent
5 to 10 percent
10 to 20 percent
More than 20 percent

The state is known for its status as both a swing state and a bellwether in national elections.

2004 United States presidential election

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The 55th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 2, 2004.

The 55th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 2, 2004.

Senator Kerry at a primary rally in St. Louis, Missouri, at the St. Louis Community College – Forest Park
David Cobb, the Green Party candidate
Libertarian candidate Michael Badnarik
Bush speaking at campaign rally in St. Petersburg, Florida, October 19, 2004
Neighboring yard signs for Bush and Kerry in Grosse Pointe, Michigan
These maps show the amount of attention given by the campaigns to the close states. At left, each waving hand represents a visit from a presidential or vice-presidential candidate during the final five weeks. At right, each dollar sign represents one million dollars spent on TV advertising by the campaigns during the same time period.
Cheney visited Washington & Jefferson College in Pennsylvania on October 27, 2004
Bush in the Oval Office, receiving a concession phone call from Kerry, which came the afternoon of the day following the election after Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell declared that it would be statistically impossible for Kerry to overcome Bush's lead in the state's results
Map of election day problems
Presidential electoral votes by state. Red is Republican; blue is Democratic.
Presidential popular votes by county. Note substantially more "mixing" of colors.
Presidential popular votes by county as a scale from red/Republican to blue/Democratic.
Presidential popular votes cartogram, in which the sizes of counties have been rescaled according to their population.
Cartogram in which each square represents one electoral vote.
Results by county, shaded according to winning candidate's percentage of the vote.
Change in vote margins at the county level from the 2000 election to the 2004 election. While Bush improved nationally overall, making his strongest gains in the South, he suffered a loss of support in parts of New England and the Western United States, which swung in Kerry's favor.
Results by congressional district.

He swept the South and the Mountain States and took the crucial swing states of Ohio, Iowa, and New Mexico, the latter two being flipped Republican.